By Olakunle Oke
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC, said the global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y in 2026.
In 2025, OPEC said that the global oil demand growth forecast remains at 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
But in 2026, it stated: “In 2026, global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y, revised up by 0.1 mb/d from last month’s assessment, on the back of supportive economic activities.
The OECD is projected to grow by about 0.2 mb/d, y-o-y, while the non-OECD is expected to expand by 1.2 mb/d, y-o-y.”
In its August 2025 Monthly Oil Market Report, MOMR, OPEC, stated: “Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.8 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, unchanged from last month’s assessment.
“The main growth drivers are expected to be the US, Brazil, Canada and Argentina. The non-DoC liquids production growth forecast for 2026 is revised down slightly by 0.1 mb/d to average 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, with Brazil, the US, Canada and Argentina as the main growth drivers.
“Meanwhile, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, averaging 8.7 mb/d, followed by a similar increase of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, to average 8.8 mb/d. Crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC increased by 335 tb/d in July, m-o-m, to average about 41.94 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.”
It stated: “In July, Atlantic basin refinery margins recovered significantly m-o-m, given the robust middle distillate crack spread performance. All key products across the barrel showed gains on the US Gulf Coast (USGC). Moreover, the lower diesel availability, as well as low fuel oil imports, led to upward pressure on refining margins.
“In Rotterdam, middle distillates margins outperformed all other key products with the exception of High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO), reflecting a tighter diesel market. In contrast, refining margins in Singapore declined m-o-m, as elevated product outflows from China weighed on markets, leading to weakness at the top and bottom sections of the barrel.
“The global refinery intake in July rose further to reach a record high of 83.6 mb/d, according to preliminary data. This was 884 tb/d higher, m-o-m, and 2.0 mb/d higher, y -o-y.”
